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Acme Corp · Refresh timing

Support ends. Do you have to buy?

Modeled sample estate: extending 352 EMEA Cisco devices (2029 cohort) with third-party support costs $573,746 over five years, against $2,294,555 to replace them at end of support. Netos shows the matched replacement and extension costs; support prices are synthetic.

Largest undiscounted saving
75.0%

Third-party extension · 2029 EMEA · Cisco path

Largest undiscounted driver
57.0 pts

Refresh choice across the modeled estate · undiscounted percentage points

Modeled runs
50

Across year, region and path

Discounted view

Five-year cost NPV by refresh choice

Positive NPV means spend. The table shows NPV per device-year for each comparable path, support-end cohort and region. 8.0% discount rate (assumption); end-of-year cash flows.

Arista alternative · 2029 · Americas

NPV in USD per device-year

Replace now
Insufficient data
At end of support
$285
Third-party extension
$233

Arista alternative · 2029 · Asia Pacific

NPV in USD per device-year

Replace now
$558
At end of support
$457
Third-party extension
$306

Arista alternative · 2029 · EMEA

NPV in USD per device-year

Replace now
$1,164
At end of support
$919
Third-party extension
$268

Cisco successor · 2026 · Americas

NPV in USD per device-year

Replace now
$495
At end of support
$495
Third-party extension
$304

Cisco successor · 2026 · Asia Pacific

NPV in USD per device-year

Replace now
$762
At end of support
$762
Third-party extension
$559

Cisco successor · 2026 · EMEA

NPV in USD per device-year

Replace now
$550
At end of support
$550
Third-party extension
$341

Cisco successor · 2027 · Americas

NPV in USD per device-year

Replace now
$1,606
At end of support
$1,421
Third-party extension
$367

Cisco successor · 2027 · Asia Pacific

NPV in USD per device-year

Replace now
$1,122
At end of support
$1,028
Third-party extension
$473

Cisco successor · 2027 · EMEA

NPV in USD per device-year

Replace now
$1,344
At end of support
$1,222
Third-party extension
$455

Cisco successor · 2028 · Americas

NPV in USD per device-year

Replace now
$696
At end of support
$568
Third-party extension
$176

Cisco successor · 2028 · Asia Pacific

NPV in USD per device-year

Replace now
$982
At end of support
$833
Third-party extension
$347

Cisco successor · 2028 · EMEA

NPV in USD per device-year

Replace now
$836
At end of support
$697
Third-party extension
$257

Cisco successor · 2029 · Americas

NPV in USD per device-year

Replace now
$883
At end of support
$672
Third-party extension
$233

Cisco successor · 2029 · Asia Pacific

NPV in USD per device-year

Replace now
$1,323
At end of support
$1,020
Third-party extension
$306

Cisco successor · 2029 · EMEA

NPV in USD per device-year

Replace now
$1,198
At end of support
$945
Third-party extension
$268

Cisco successor · 2030 · Americas

NPV in USD per device-year

Replace now
$999
At end of support
$792
Third-party extension
$348

Cisco successor · 2030 · Asia Pacific

NPV in USD per device-year

Replace now
$1,005
At end of support
$798
Third-party extension
$356

Cisco successor · 2030 · EMEA

NPV in USD per device-year

Replace now
$990
At end of support
$782
Third-party extension
$333

Replacing now instead of at end of support raises five-year cost NPV by 0.0%–31.4% across comparable segments. Sensitivity: 5.0% discount rate (assumption): 0.0%–19.0%; 12.0% discount rate (assumption): 0.0%–49.1%. Rising post-end-of-support cost: not modeled. Hardware and third-party support prices in this refresh comparison are synthetic inputs.

The comparison

Where extension changes the cost

Undiscounted saving from third-party extension against replace at end of support on the same vendor path, support-end year and region. Percentages are shown where both costs are available.

Cisco successor
Percentage saved by extension against replace at end of support, Cisco successor, by support-end year and region
YearAmericasEMEAAPAC
202633.4%34.0%23.9%
202774.7%63.2%54.3%
202871.5%65.9%61.4%
202970.0%75.0%74.4%
203061.5%62.8%60.8%
Arista alternative
Percentage saved by extension against replace at end of support, Arista alternative, by support-end year and region
YearAmericasEMEAAPAC
2026
2027
2028
202926.0%74.3%39.7%
2030

Insufficient data: no priced alternative mapping. The Arista path is modeled only where a priced mapping exists.

Saving scale LowestLower middleUpper middleHighest

Chart note: hardware prices and third-party support prices in this comparison are synthetic scenario inputs. The separate support coverage case uses NASPO ValuePoint Cisco contract ceiling prices, effective 2026-10-01 for matched Cisco devices. Annual term (owner ruling; consistent with catalog structure and reseller listings; not stated in the NASPO catalog). Savings compare modeled costs, not Acme’s observed spend. Third-party extension has the same cost under both vendor paths; the cost is shown once in the concrete comparison below. Device hardware only; components are excluded.

The undiscounted driver

The choice matters most

Across the modeled estate, refresh choice changes undiscounted modeled saving by 57.0 percentage points. Support-end year is next at 11.9 percentage points.

Refresh choice
57.0 pts
Support-end year
11.9 pts
Region
3.4 pts
Vendor path
2.2 pts

What moves the number

  • Choose the action. Compare extending support with replace at end of support before setting a purchase date.
  • Sequence by support-end year. The year changes how long a purchase stays inside the model window.
  • Price the successor path. Use the Arista alternative only where a comparable priced mapping exists.

What was not measured

The Arista replacement path lacks a priced alternative mapping in 12 year-and-region positions. Those positions remain insufficient data; they are not assumed to match the Cisco path.

Arista / 2029 / Americas / replace now — Not modeled: no separate run for this comparison.

Components and financing are outside this device-hardware comparison. Rising post-end-of-support cost: not modeled.

A concrete comparison

For the 2029 EMEA cohort: Extension — applies to both paths: $326 per device-year. Cisco replace at end of support: $1,304 per device-year. That is the 75.0% undiscounted saving shown above for third-party extension on the Cisco path.

Cisco replacement now is also $1,304 per device-year over this undiscounted window.

Method and inputs

The 2026–2030 support-end cohorts are compared over 5 years. Costs are normalized per device-year. Third-party extension applies to both vendor paths and is shown once in the underlying cost comparison; it does not imply a successor purchase.

Sourced

  • Lifecycle dates and estate records

Synthetic

  • Successor hardware and third-party support prices

The Acme cases describe separate decisions and are never added together.